Moderate Islam and Secularist Opposition in Turkey: implications for the world, Muslims and secular democracy

Developing an argument based in theories of democratic consolidation and religious competition, and discussing the reasons for the secularist opposition to the government, this article analyses how government by a party rooted in moderate Islamism may affect Turkey’s peculiar secular democracy, development and external relations and how Muslims in the world relate to modernization and democracy. Arguing that secularism in advanced democracies may be a product of democracy as much as it is the other way around, the article maintains that democratic consolidation may secure further consolidation of Turkish secularism and sustainable moderation of Turkish political Islam. Besides democratic Islamic – conservative actors and other factors, democratic consolidation requires strong democratic – secularist political parties so that secularist and moderate Islamist civilian actors check and balance each other. Otherwise, middle class value divisions and mistrust in areas like education and social regulation may jeopardise democratisation and economic modernisation and continuing reconciliation of Islamism with secular democracy and modernity. The main goal of this article is to examine what the current divisions in Turkey over political Islam may imply for the way we envision the relationships between religion, Islam and modernisation, especially the relationship between democratic consolidation and secularism. Following its landslide electoral victory in July 2007, Turkey’s governing AKP (Justice and Development Party), a party rooted in Islamism, has been solidified as a leading political actor and given a historical opportunity to reshape Turkey’s social and political mainstream. How will this affect Turkey’s modernisation, secular democracy and external relations, and what Murat Somer is in the Department of International Relations, College of Administrative Sciences and Economics, Koç University, Rumeli Feneri Yolu, Sarıyer, 34450 Istanbul, Turkey. Email: [email protected]. Third World Quarterly, Vol. 28, No. 7, 2007, pp 1271 – 1289 ISSN 0143-6597 print/ISSN 1360-2241 online/07/071271–19 2007 Third World Quarterly DOI: 10.1080/01436590701604888 1271 does all this mean for the world in regard to Muslims’ relations with modernity and secular democracy? At first, the answers to these questions seem to depend on the nature of the AKP itself: whether it is a secretly Islamist, moderate Islamist, or Islamic – conservative democratic party, and how sincere its commitments are to secular democracy. Alternatively one may ask to what extent Islamic principles, or, for that matter, religious principles, can be compatible with secular democracy in the long run, a critical question throughout the world. A more complete analysis reveals that the party’s legacy will depend as much on the party’s own nature and decisions as it will on the nature and decisions of the secularist political actors. There are no fixed answers. The AKP as a party and ideology, and moderate Islamism in general, are dynamic. Religious politics is a product of both its own roots and its domestic and international political and economic milieu. One can foresee different AKPs, and thus different prospects for Turkish secularism, depending on various factors such as Turkey’s political system, economic development, external support, and social divisions over values. The key intervening variable is democratic consolidation. The establishment and, so far, performance of the AKP forms a major example of the ‘moderation’ of political Islam through the embrace of democracy, modernity and liberal global economy, as opposed to ‘radical’ Islamism, which pursues an Islamic state, as in Iran or Saudi Arabia. The party defines itself as conservative democratic, and its record in government since 2002 ‘has been markedly moderate’. It has achieved path-breaking reforms in democratisation, and continuous economic stability and growth. It secured the start of Turkey’s EU accession talks in 2005. It became the first governing party since 1960 to have the courage to stand up to the military’s interference in politics by publicly denouncing the military’s criticism of the government. The party’s moderation cannot be explained away as an unintended and unreliable product of opportunistic steps in response to ‘lucky coincidences’. The party was able to use its opportunities because a young and pragmatic generation of Turkish Islamists critical of the old guard decided to found the AKP with a deliberately chosen pro-democracy programme and secular outlook. They did so by learning from past mistakes and with an eye to appealing to broader segments of the electorate. Yet significant portions of Turkish society and the secularist military and judiciary continue to suspect the AKP of anti-secularism, and, for that matter, anti-democratic tendencies. Secularist rallies in spring 2007 drew millions of people. The rallies are indicative of a major socio-political rift in this pivotal emerging market and democracy. How this rift is managed will determine whether Turkish democracy will finally become a full rather than a guided democracy, where democracy includes not only free elections but also the freedom of elected governments to pursue policies disapproved of by the military on issues such as secularism and the Kurdish question. It will also determine the evolution of Turkish secularism and political Islam. MURAT SOMER